chronicle, Minority Report
For liberation of Russian-speaking Donbass, that the Ukrainian forces were shelling since 2014, demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, Russia has started on February 24, 2022, a special military operation. The New York Times stressed it on June 25, Western boots are on the ground since 2014, special operation forces, instructors, intelligence officers. And my assertion is that Western operatives, especially French ones, were even taken prisoners in May, in Mariupol. But I am wondering about line troops
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has immediately decreed the general mobilization, built a military manpower three times the size of republican (from separatist People’s Republics) and professional Russian forces on the front line. Aimed in theory at the defense of Western Ukraine, territorial brigades have been sent to the battlefield in Donbass. But Russia is possessing a great superiority in firepower, freed Mariupol on May 20, had already seized Kherson and in Energodar, Zaporojie nuclear power plant (ZNPP). The battle is a carnage for the Ukrainian cannon fodder, more than 50,000, maybe 100,000 killed in action (KIA) service members, at least ten times the Russian fatalities
The West has flooded Ukraine with weapons and ammunition, depleted its own stocks, without significant results. The most newsworthy use of French long-range 155mm howitzers or US HIMARS MLRS is so far the deliberate terrorist shelling of civilians. On September 27, the inhabitants of four regions, Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk and Zaporojihe, have confirmed with a huge majority their return to the Russian Federation. Russia is training 300,000 reservists, who will triple its manpower on the ground, will balance the forces. Russia has stepped up the strategic strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities and Israel will not supply Ukraine with air defense weapons. The Ukrainian economy is destroyed and the West is funding the whole country, but the Western sanctions against Russia are actually wreaking havoc in Europe. NATO has compromised itself in terrorist operations. The sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines was the most crooked one so far, against the own economic interests of the European stooges
The US are forbidding Ukraine from negotiating with Russia. But what could be a Ukrainian victory ? The reconquest of Donbass and Crimea ? In the context, that idea is a fantasy for cushy war-mongering yuppies like Paul Massaro. Yet, the issue is far more serious than Donbass, Crimea or even Ukraine
- October 12, 2022
Mark Milley is chairman of the joint US chiefs of staff, states at a NATO meeting in Brussels
this fight is not just in Ukraine’s interests, it is in the global interests to protect, as the Secretary [defense, Lloyd Austin] pointed out, the rules-based international order, and that is our purpose that has been given to us, the uniformed military, from our civilian leadership, which is to uphold the rules-based international order that was established some-80 years ago at the conclusion of World War II
I was suspecting such stuff. Milley confirms, from his point of view, what Vladimir Putin has explained on September 30
the world has entered a period of a fundamental, revolutionary transformation
- October 21, 2022
Joe Biden tells MSNBC
the conflict in Ukraine should not end with the success of Russia. Washington has spent a lot of money to help Kyiv. But it’s about much more than Ukrainians, it’s about NATO, it’s about Western Europe. It’s about making sure Putin can’t succeed
The problem is now clearer, but my question remains, how to prevent Russia from winning in Ukraine ?
Meanwhile the 2nd brigade of the US 101st airborne division, 4,700 service members, has been deployed in Romania and is training, three miles from Ukraine border, stresses CBS
- October 22, 2022
He suggests a technical solution while a French magazine is interviewing him. David Petraeus is a former CIA director (2011-2012) and commander of the Western forces in Afghanistan (2010-2011), that he left 10 years before the Taliban victory
the US and other countries can respond to Russia’s actions in one way or another, but as a US-led multinational force, not as a NATO force
I imagine the technical solution, troops from Poland and Baltic States may be involved around a US core. That opens strategic prospects. If the goal is the reconquest of Donbass and Crimea, that Russia is now regarding as its own territories, Petraeus should also consider the nuclear aspect of his plan.
- October 23, 2022
Sergei Shoigu is the Russian defense minister, holds telephone talks with his French, Turkish and British counterparts. He conveys his concerns about
possible provocations by Ukraine with the use of a dirty bomb [which is combining radioactive material with conventional explosive, in order to disperse the former]
Such dirty bomb may be the shocking and terrible Russian action which would trigger the US direct involvement in Ukraine and that David Petraeus has raised in his interview (cf. supra, October 22).
Shoigu later talks to the US defense secretary.
- October 26, 2022
Antony Blinken is the US Secretary of State (foreign affairs minister). At Bloomberg conference in Washington DC, he states
[…] now is the moment when the era that followed the Cold War has ended and there is a competition to determine what will happen next […] if the United States of America are not involved in the big work of organizing peace, then either someone else will do it and probably in a way that will affect our interests and values, or no one will do anything and then a vacuum will form that tends to be filled with bad things […]
He prompts other countries to join the US work to support Ukraine, in order to achieve the strategic defeat of Russia, as well as multilateral cooperation to compete with China.
That strategic profession of faith features no operational detail in Ukraine. Iraq, Libya and Syria remind what is Pax Americana, one Republican invasion, two Democratic operations. Blinken reaffirms the will of US hegemony, while the Western dominance is mechanically crumbling. A more monolithic West, where the recent events have stressed the subjugation of Europe. Every intelligence agency knows that the US have conducted the crooked terrorist sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines, but no European leader dares admit it to his public opinion.
- October 27, 2022
A serious Russian mathematical analysis has assessed from various Ukrainian sources the Ukrainian military casualties so far, about
- 100,000 KIA service members,
- 23,000 still detained prisoners of war (POW)
I guess that the badly injured ones are twice more than the fatalities, for a grand total of about 325,000 definitive losses. 360,000 fighters would still be in the ranks
- October 28, 2022
Sergey Shoigu reports to Vladimir Putin about the partial mobilization. So far, 82,000 reservists have been deployed in the areas of the special military operation, 218,000 are still training
On October 26, Ukrainian propagandist Oleksii Arestovych has admitted that in the south, where Ukraine is focusing its offensive efforts toward Kherson, the situation is changing in an unpleasant way. I guess that the issue will worsen in the next weeks.
- October 29, 2022
At dawn, nine drones and seven torpedoes attack Sevastopol harbor, the base in Crimea of the Russian Black sea fleet. The assailants are destroyed before reaching their targets
Such mysterious USV (unmanned surface vessel) already ran aground near Sevastopol on September 21
The Russian authorities officially states that according to intelligence, British members of the Royal Navy have plotted, organized and implemented that attack and on September 26, the sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines. Russia adds that the targeted ships were involved in the security of the UN-brokered grain corridor for the export from Ukraine of agricultural products, suspends its participation in the implementation of that agreement.
Among the debris of the USVs, some Canadian-made navigation modules are still exploitable. The results of their analysis are released the day after. According to the Russian authorities, the torpedoes were launched near Odessa, in the security zone of the grain corridor, that they followed to the open sea, before their change of course toward Sevastopol.
- November 3, 2022
The Russian intelligence has gathered evidences of the British involvement in the attacks against Crimea bridge, on October 8, then Sevastopol harbor, on October 29. British ambassador Deborah Bronnert is summoned to the Russian foreign ministry, where she is presented with these evidences and notified that
such confrontational actions of the English carry a threat of escalation and could lead to unpredictable and dangerous consequences
- November 15, 2022
The Ukrainian air defense manages to shoot down an agricultural tractor on Polish territory. While Russia is conducting a massive air raid against energy sector all over Ukraine, a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile (SAM) falls in Przewodow, a few km from the border, about 70 km north of Lviv, Ukraine. Two Polish civilians are killed.
When the evidences of a Ukrainian shot, debris of a missile from S-300 system, have already been found, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accuses Russia. Hysterical Baltic officials and as usual, most Western media, are broadcasting his propaganda. Ecstatic on social networks, the Ukrainian nationalists are demanding the enforcement of NATO article 5, the outbreak of a new world war.
The question is accident or crime ? Did Ukraine attempt to trigger the involvement of NATO ?
Among the most concerned, Jarosław Pakuła is the head of Lublin city council, the capital of the region where has fallen the Ukrainian missile. The day after, he replies to the previous question
I absolutely do not understand the actions of our president and government. It is obvious that this is a Ukrainian missile. It is obvious that this is a provocation on the part of the Ukrainian authorities. The missile could not have been launched 100 km in the opposite direction by mistake. Today, our president should not reassure us with fairy tales like “it was not so much a rocket explosion, but an explosion of fuel that was there” and “it was accident”, but to make it clear to Volodymyr Zelensky that Poland will no longer tolerate such behavior of the Ukrainian authorities. I urge you to reconsider Poland’s position on this war in the event of another crossing of the red line
Indeed. In my work, probabilities are always a parameter of the riddle. How could a Ukrainian SAM malfunction more than 70 km from the city that it was supposed to defend ?
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Nicolas Cinquini 
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