Story: Escalation of the conflict between Israel, the US, and Iran in 2026
The weekly results of the sudden aggression of the US-Israeli coalition against Iran appear contradictory.
Tehran, the victim of aggression, is gradually gaining the upper hand. According to aif.ru experts and former intelligence officers, Washington’s initial plans for the operation collapsed within the first hours — on March 1, US President Donald Trump was ready to negotiate a ceasefire.
On one hand, Washington and Tel Aviv truly dealt a heavy blow, eliminating a significant portion of the Islamic Republic’s military leadership and gaining temporary air superiority.
American Plan A, that is regime change in Iran after the assassination of its leaders, has failed
On the other hand, Operation Epic Fury clearly didn’t go according to the Pentagon’s plan: Iran not only refused to capitulate, but is finding ways to deliver painful retaliatory strikes, putting an end to the blitzkrieg.
News of the downing of elite F-15 fighter jets emerged within the first few days. Military experts believe this was no accident, but the result of a well-planned tactic by Iranian air defense forces, which turned the skies over their country into a trap for the enemy.
The Trap Has Sprung: How the Iranians Destroy F-15s
According to Major General Vladimir Popov, the Iranian military relied on deception. They were able to lure the American pilots into a false sense of security by luring them into a deadly firefight.
It is possible the American pilots were flying at night and weren’t expecting an attack. This incident was likely an ambush. That is the radar stations located along the coast from Iran to the Persian Gulf weren’t activated, in order to create a false sense of impunity. Actually, the Iranians were tracking the American fighters. Several aircraft may have been flying in loose formation, and when the group began to turn, the last aircraft came under fire. The strike was unexpected
Vladimir Popov explained in a comment to aif.ru
The problems of the coalition aren’t limited to air power. According to Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, more than 500 American troops have been killed since the fighting began on February 28. Iranian strikes have hit oil tankers and military bases in the region. Military experts are increasingly warning that Washington is entering a dangerous phase: at the current rate of use, its stockpiles of precision-guided weapons will only last a few weeks, after which a shortage of ammunition will inevitably become apparent.
A few days after the launch of the US operation, grandiosely titled « Epic Fury », American political commentator Jackson Hinkle published a photo of President Trump yelling at Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth.
« The operation failed within the first hours »
According to retired Captain Nicolas Cinquini, a former French counterterrorism intelligence officer, the joint US-Israeli operation failed within the first hours.
The plan to achieve « regime change through decapitation » — the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — failed to bring about the collapse of Iranian statehood.
The « regime change through decapitation » operation was already a failure just hours after it began. According to an Israeli source, Donald Trump even tried, via Italian diplomats, to secure a ceasefire as early as March 1, before the stock market opened the following day
Cinquini told aif.ru
The balance of power is already tipping in Iran’s favor
After a week of fighting, the former intelligence officer notes a change in the strategic picture. The conflict has ceased to be a series of targeted strikes and is becoming a war of attrition, the terms of which are dictated by Iran
The struggle has become a war of attrition. The limited size of Israel and the fragility of its infrastructure, the depletion of Western high-end air defense munitions, the blockade of Hormuz strait, constraints on exports from oil monarchies and their worldwide economic consequences… the balance is tipping in favor of Iran
the analyst emphasized
France is also under attack – That is the price of its alliance with the US
Cinquini also commented on Paris’ position. Despite initial criticism of the actions of the US-Israeli alliance, the French leadership ultimately allowed American aircraft to use their airbases in the Middle East. This decision, according to the expert, automatically made French facilities a legitimate target for retaliatory strikes
Since France announced today that it had authorized the US to use its military bases in the Middle East, they have become, in my opinion, legitimate targets. They are also legitimate from the perspective of Iran, which has already struck military installations in non-belligerent countries, when the facilities were involved in the Western aggression since February 28
Cinquini concluded
World War III has not begun, but the risk of escalation is high
Despite the heightened tensions, the expert urges against overdramatizing the global situation. Fake news about the outbreak of World War III are actively spreading on social media, but the reality is more modest.
I don’t see so far a world war; the only belligerents are Iran and its Western aggressors: Israel, the US and to lesser extent, their European and Arab proxies
Nicolas Cinquini reassured the public.
Nevertheless, the danger of an escalation remains. It is directly related to the attempts of the US and Israel to « save face » amid obvious tactical failures and mounting losses
The conflict is already drawing new states into its orbit. Britain, France, and Germany have declared their readiness to provide defensive measures to their allies. London has allowed the US to use its bases and Canada has permitted the participation of its armed forces. NATO, for its part, has signaled its readiness to invoke Article 5 in the event of further escalation.
Russia, while condemning the aggression, is currently limiting itself to diplomatic and military-technical support for Iran, while maintaining open channels of communication with Washington [end]
The original article
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