Daily pictures : a real defeat in Krasny Liman

In an amateur video on October 1, 2022, Ukrainian national guards appear at the gates of Krasny Liman (screenshot)

After weeks of fighting in the outskirts of the town -about 20,000 inhabitants before the Russian special military operation for liberation of Donbass, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine-, the Russian forces have withdrawn from Krasny Liman, where the Ukrainian attacks were threatening to encircle the garrison

Russian open source intelligence group RYBAR has drawn this situation map on October 1

I guess that the casualties are severe for Ukraine, light for Russia, a good point in an attrition war. But the battlefield is no more in the Pampas between Kharkov and Oskol river, where Russia has no territorial ambition. Krasny Liman is in Donetsk region, Donbass.

Defense is losing most of the time. The Stosstruppen-like infiltration tactics of the Ukrainian DRG (destruction and recce groups) will always win in a Russian defensive context. On September 20, Russia has mobilized reservists who are currently training. These reinforcements should reach the battlefield before the end of the month, multiply by three the global manpower and balance the forces. But the manpower will never be sufficient for the stabilization of a so wide front. I guess that the Russian strategy should be more aggressive, if not for gaining ground, in order to destroy the Ukrainian forces.

The day after Vladimir Putin’s historical speech, the Ukrainian propaganda will exploit this victory, which revives the ambition to seize back Donbass, southern Ukraine and Crimea, galvanizes the troops. Among US supporters of Ukraine, the leitmotiv is currently let’s ignore the rants from Moscow, let’s watch the battle on the ground.

4 responses to “Daily pictures : a real defeat in Krasny Liman”

  1. […] of NATO weapons to Ukraine, Ukrainian offensives and terrorism, partial mobilization in Russia, sabotage of Nord […]

    Liked by 1 person

  2. […] has already carried out two successful offensives, one in the north, around Kharkov, the second in Krasny Liman, Donbass. The next one may be in the south, where the Ukrainian forces have failed so far, […]

    Liked by 1 person

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